A New Rumble in the Bronx: Battle for the Borough Presidency

Rafael Salamanca right now a councilman and chair of the Council s powerful Land Use Committee is challenging the incumbent borough president Vanessa Gibson Several dynamics make this a race worth watching Current Borough President Vanessa Gibson right Her challenger City Councilmember Rafael Salamanca right Flickr Office of the Bronx Borough President William Alatriste NYC Council Media Unit This analysis is part of a series exploring the role of the Latino vote in the city s municipal elections Read more about it here With all eyes on the race for the mayoralty fewer New York City voters have yet glanced north to the Bronx where a rumble of its own is shaping up Rafael Salamanca currently a councilman and chair of the Council s powerful Land Use Committee is challenging the incumbent borough president Vanessa Gibson Several dynamics make this a race worth watching Having won office four years ago Gibson has one term left Taking on an incumbent who in this occurrence is fairly well liked across the Bronx does not happen often But Salamanca has made the bold move and might definitely give Gibson a run for her money As a councilman with years of experience under his belt Salamanca is no ordinary insurgent Not only does he bring to the race the claim of city legislative experience which Gibson has as well from her previous Council experience and her current borough presidential role he also comes to the race having raised a whopping double the amount the incumbent Gibson has At least in terms of fundraising Salamanca clearly has not been hampered by the typical insurgent woes The chart above shows that Gibson has received over more than Salamanca in society matching money Yet Salamanca s massive fundraising haul in private donations and a lower spend up to this point in the campaign has left him with a -plus spending advantage heading into the last six weeks of the race At least when it comes to money Salamanca has an edge But money isn t everything at least not in this race Salamanca is taking on a well-liked incumbent in Gibson She has the backing of the Bronx Democratic Party the powerful union the Working Families Party and numerous elected agents various of whom are Latino across the Bronx For majority insurgents taking on an incumbent with this level of endorsement usually spells trouble Can Salamanca defy the odds He has certainly removed the usual fundraising advantage that the greater part incumbents enjoy But what about other factors Does Salamanca have a path given that the Bronx is the only Latino-majority borough According to the preponderance contemporary voter file Latinos comprise percent of all registered Bronx Democrats The next largest group based on excellent evidence from the firm L is Black voters at percent This may seem to suggest an advantage for Salamanca However things are a bit more complicated in the Bronx for anyone considering the Latino vote as an unique path to achievement this is not to say that this is Salamanca s strategy For one the Latino vote alone is not enough to give any candidate the win Moreover Latino voting participation in the Bronx as in other places lags behind other groups Let s take a look at numbers from the last municipal polling in the Bronx in when Gibson was first elected as borough president Several elements are vital to understand here First only percent of eligible Bronx voters came out to the polls in the voting process In Manhattan percent of eligible voters went to the polls In Brooklyn it was percent Similar rates applied in Queens and Staten Island The Bronx is the borough with the lowest voting participation rates in the city for reasons I won t address here Moreover not only is voting participation low borough-wide it s particularly low among Latinos Only percent of eligible Latino Democratic voters participated in the vote By comparison percent of eligible Black voters went to the polls as did percent of the considerably fewer eligible white voters When it comes to Latino voting participation the question remains What is holding Latinos back from participating in elections Unfortunately a great number of Latino elected executives in the borough are neglecting to engage the question All this notwithstanding Salamanca will need to win the lion s share of the Latino vote to make this a competitive race If Gibson manages to pull enough Latinos to her column which is not impossible for her to do Salamanca will have a very long night on electoral contest day If this race comes down to voters making choices by fealty to race and ethnicity my eyes will be glued to results in neighborhoods that are mostly non-Black and Latino Almost half of these voters are in Riverdale where a key Gibson supporter Assemblyman Jeffrey Dinowitz has his base Another percent of these voters reside in Morris Park City Island and Pelham Bay areas represented by another Gibson backer Assemblyman Michael Benedetto Both Dinowitz and Benedetto have long been party stalwarts and their backing for Gibson will be critical in this race In addition to pulling out the Latino vote Salamanca s chances will depend on how a great number of of these voters he ll be able to convince Clearly much is at stake for both candidates Gibson is the only incumbent borough president facing a serious challenge And Salamanca aspires to be the fifth Latino borough president of the Condado de la Salsa One thing is for sure with fewer than six weeks to go this rumble in the Bronx will become more contentious before it is over Eli Valentin is a former Gotham Gazette contributor and at this moment serves as assistant dean of graduate and leadership studies at Virginia Union University He lives in New York with his family The post A New Rumble in the Bronx Battle for the Borough Presidency appeared first on City Limits